When should markets expect a U.S.-Iran ceasefire? See what prediction markets say (SPY:NYSEARCA) Seeking AlphaPrediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader NPRGeopolitics Bets Hit a Record on Polymarket as Iran War Escalates Bloomberg.comKalshi Defends Ayatollah Khamenei Trades Amid Prediction Market Controversy Barron's