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May 07, 2024
Tight lending standards and high interest rates continue to limit borrowing.
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May 07, 2024
The supply of debt is an added drag on borrowing and one that can be overlooked.
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May 06, 2024
Following a busy week, the U.S. economic calendar is unusually bare this week.
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May 06, 2024
Job growth moderated in April, but the labor market is still holding strong.
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May 06, 2024
What does the latest U.S. jobs report signal for the wider economy?
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May 06, 2024
What does the latest U.S. jobs report signal for the wider economy?
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May 03, 2024
Once a key milestone on the journey to adulthood, homeownership has become increasingly elusive.
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May 03, 2024
After a string of employment reports coming in above expectations, 175,000 were added in April.
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May 03, 2024
We expect U.S. consumer sentiment to have edged slightly lower this month.
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May 03, 2024
Slowing wage growth and an expanding labor supply couple nicely with April's 175,000 job gain.
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May 03, 2024
We forecast the prices of copper and nickel under energy transition demand shocks from 2025 to 2050.
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May 03, 2024
Widespread anti-Israel protests demonstrate the predicament that President Biden is in when it comes to the Israel-Hamas war.
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May 03, 2024
Both refunds and payments were tracking close to previous years by the end of the 2024 U.S. tax season.
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May 02, 2024
The U.S. economy likely added 270,000 jobs in April.
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May 02, 2024
The graceful disinflation experienced in 2023 did not persist in the first quarter of 2024.
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May 02, 2024
We look for the economy to have added 270,000 jobs, on net.
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May 01, 2024
The rate-setting FOMC acknowledged stalled progress in its fight against inflation.
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May 01, 2024
The department estimates that it will need to borrow $243 billion from April to June, bringing the total for fiscal 2024 to $1.84 trillion.
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Apr 30, 2024
A bevy of data from the U.S. and Europe provide key insights.
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Apr 30, 2024
To distract from the legal drama and win over independents, the Trump campaign is working to make the election a referendum on Biden.
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Apr 29, 2024
Businesses are gaining confidence globally but notable risks remain.
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Apr 29, 2024
U.S. GDP surprised to the downside in the first quarter as core inflation held steady.
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Apr 29, 2024
The economy slowed in the first quarter on inventories and trade.
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Apr 26, 2024
PCE and core PCE inflation rose 0.3%, in line with our and consensus expectations.
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Apr 26, 2024
We do not expect a change in the fed funds rate target but assume there will be two cuts in the second half of the year.
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Apr 26, 2024
President Biden signed a hotly contested $95 billion foreign aid package destined for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
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Apr 26, 2024
The EU has been working on a decoupling strategy for some time.
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Apr 26, 2024
Why the Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measures matter.
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Apr 25, 2024
After heady growth in the second half of last year, GDP softened to start 2024.
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Apr 25, 2024
The age composition among workers in several trades has changed in a resurgence since the pandemic.
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Apr 24, 2024
Moody's Analytics expects U.S. real growth at an annualized rate of 2.5%.
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Apr 24, 2024
Retail remains under pressure from the rebound in service spending and the likelihood of reduced growth in employment and wage rates.
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Apr 24, 2024
Moody's Analytics expects U.S. real growth at an annualized rate of 2.5%.
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Apr 24, 2024
We provide monthly updates to our 2024 presidential election prediction to assess the impact of new economic data and changes in our U.S. national and state forecasts.
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Apr 24, 2024
Success in keeping expense growth under control will be vital for avoiding a funding cliff as revenue growth slows and federal aid dries up.
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Apr 23, 2024
A dearth of available housing supply has kept a floor under demand for new homes.
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Apr 22, 2024
Slated for release this week are first-quarter U.S. GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
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Apr 22, 2024
High interest rates continue to weigh on housing, while oil markets face geopolitical pressure.
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Apr 22, 2024
Consumer credit gains in March were broad-based; measured on a year-ago basis, first mortgage lending gained 2.3%, auto balances moved 2.7% higher.
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Apr 22, 2024
What are the chances of a commercial real estate doom loop?
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Apr 19, 2024
The U.S. state employment report confirms that the labor market remains strong everywhere.
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Apr 19, 2024
Despite wild fluctuations in retail sales, the underlying trend is for modest growth.
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Apr 19, 2024
Rising Middle Eastern tensions will likely unsettle economic and political landscapes.
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Apr 19, 2024
An upward inflection in delinquency rates and unemployment is sparking concern.
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Apr 19, 2024
Israel has retaliated against Iran, but early indications are that the response was not severe.
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Apr 18, 2024
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey provides some upside, but the outlook remains unclear.
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Apr 18, 2024
Through the first quarter, corporate bond issuance picked up significantly compared with last year, and ratings of the majority of the existing bonds started to improve.
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Apr 17, 2024
Structural factors are keeping prices from running away, but the situation is precarious.
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Apr 17, 2024
Burdens remain historically low.
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Apr 17, 2024
Energy prices will rise quickly if Israel responds aggressively to Iran's recent attack.
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Apr 17, 2024
Another hotter-than-expected CPI report signals caution.
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Apr 17, 2024
The brief slowdown in job creation at the end of 2023 appears now to be an aberration rather than the beginning of a trend.
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Apr 16, 2024
U.S. housing starts took a sharper than expected decline in March.
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Apr 16, 2024
Will Israel choose escalation or de-escalation?
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Apr 16, 2024
Despite declining vehicle prices, U.S. car insurance keeps rising.
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Apr 16, 2024
Geopolitical risks are many, but the middling performance of the global economy in the opening months of the year owes to pedestrian factors.
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Apr 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside, but several risks remain.
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Apr 15, 2024
April 15 marks the official close of tax season, but the story is not over.
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Apr 15, 2024
The initial muted response by oil prices to Iran's attack on Israel could be short-lived.
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Apr 15, 2024
Inflation remains above the Fed's target, forestalling the rate cuts necessary to conclude the economy has soft-landed; but given positive developments on the economy's supply side, there is reason to be optimistic that inflation is headed to target, the Fed will soon ease, and the expansion will continue.
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Apr 15, 2024
Real prices on the U.S. secondary market remain 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
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Apr 12, 2024
It's too early to tell whether another unfavorable inflation print will weigh on consumers.
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Apr 12, 2024
A wealth of housing market data are also due next week.
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Apr 12, 2024
The spy measure has drawn a significant amount of controversy regarding privacy rights in general, though former President Trump has his own bone to pick with the law.
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Apr 12, 2024
Two surveys reveal that Canadians are feeling more optimistic.
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Apr 12, 2024
Inflation's graceful moderation in 2023 appears to have stalled with the turning of the calendar.
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Apr 12, 2024
Tensions are at risk of escalating in the Middle East.
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Apr 12, 2024
New estimates from the Congressional Budget Office paint a vastly different picture of recent immigration.
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Apr 11, 2024
Inflation remains above target and central banks are hesitant to lower interest rates.
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Apr 11, 2024
Fewer businesses are responding to employment surveys, raising questions about the accuracy of estimates.
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Apr 10, 2024
March's hot CPI print will delay the Fed's plans to begin loosening policy.
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Apr 09, 2024
Despite a strong economy and robust job growth, U.S. small businesses face challenges.
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Apr 09, 2024
The delinquency rate on auto loans jumped 14 basis points in March to its highest since April 2010.
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Apr 09, 2024
The delinquency rate on auto loans jumped 14 basis points in March to its highest since April 2010.
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Apr 09, 2024
Our below-consensus forecast calls for 0.2% growth in the core rate.
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Apr 09, 2024
More small businesses raised prices in March, adding to inflation pressures.
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Apr 09, 2024
March's job report came in hot, but minimal monetary policy implications meant investors weren't too rattled.
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Apr 08, 2024
After a quiet start, this week will see a number of important inflation indicators.
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Apr 05, 2024
The labor market continues to deliver a string of impressive performances.
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Apr 05, 2024
Projected growth in the March CPI would bring the annual rate up from 3.2% in February to 3.4%.
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Apr 05, 2024
Each year, around 20% of individual income taxes due are left unpaid.
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Apr 05, 2024
Increased immigration has been a net positive for U.S. economic growth.
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Apr 05, 2024
The housing market continues to cool.
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Apr 05, 2024
The first quarter of 2024 saw a booming 829,000 jobs added in the U.S.
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Apr 05, 2024
The White House did not specify how support for Israel would change if its demands were not met.
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Apr 04, 2024
We provide monthly updates to our 2024 presidential election prediction to assess the impact of new economic data and changes in our U.S. national and state forecasts.
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Apr 04, 2024
The U.S. economy likely gained 220,000 jobs in March.
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Apr 04, 2024
We look for the economy to have added 220,000 jobs on net in March.
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Apr 03, 2024
Improving affordability is helping U.S. auto sales.
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Apr 03, 2024
Like the Federal Reserve, we mostly looked through the hot CPI reports at the start of 2024 and expect policy will soon begin to be eased.
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Apr 02, 2024
New data on job openings and labor turnover did little to alter the outlook.
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Apr 01, 2024
The tone has been set for the week with an upside surprise to the ISM manufacturing index; the focus now turns to the labor market.
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Apr 01, 2024
The Fed's favorite basket got a little more expensive in February, but still had some sweet surprises.
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Apr 01, 2024
What are the economic consequences of the deadly collapse of an important river crossing in Baltimore?
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Apr 01, 2024
The U.S. tax season is more than halfway over and there are a number of important dynamics to watch.
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Mar 29, 2024
Three key U.S. economic reports were released Friday, closing out a busy week for data.
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Mar 29, 2024
The U.S. economic calendar will keep busy following the Easter weekend as a flurry of jobs and manufacturing data are released.
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Mar 29, 2024
The evolving mix of industry wage growth signals deceleration ahead.
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Mar 29, 2024
An extended disruption at the Port of Baltimore could mean a supply shock that extends to Asia and potentially reverberates back into global supply chains.
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Mar 28, 2024
We expect that the core PCE deflator rose 0.3% again in February.
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